#VARIANCE OF COIN FLIP HOW TO#

#VARIANCE OF COIN FLIP HOW TO#

Let's look at a step-by-step example to see how to calculate the probability of an event using the coin toss probability calculator: It all boils down to getting your hands on a coin that is weighted appropriately. In other words, if you assign the success of your experiment, be it getting tails or the girl agreeing to your proposal, to one side of the coin and the other option to the back of the coin, the coin toss probability will determine the answer. Whether you want to toss a coin or ask a girl out, there are only two possibilities that can occur. ' Hey man, but girls and coins are two different things! I should know, I've seen at least one of each.' Well, let me explain that these two problems are basically the same, that is, from the point of view of mathematics. Not very likely to happen, is it? Maybe you should try being less beautiful! In this case, your odds are 210 * (9 / 10) 4 * (1 / 10) 6 = 0.000137781, where the 210 comes from the number of possible fours of girls among the ten that would agree.

If you multiply the probability of each event by itself the number of times you want it to occur, you get the chance that your scenario will come true. This means that you want the other six girls to reject you, which, based on your good looks, has only a 1 / 10 change of happening (The sum of all events happening is always equal to 1, so we get this number by subtracting 9 / 10 from 1).

So a solid 9 / 10 then.Īs you only want to go on four dates, that means you only want four of your romance attempts to succeed. If you have problems with assessing your looks fairly, go downstairs and let your grandma tell you what a handsome, young gentleman you are. One of those has got to be the one, right? The first thing you have to do in this situation is look in the mirror and rate how likely a girl is to agree to go out with you when you start talking to her. More specifically, you want to ask ten girls out and go on a date with only four of them. Say that you're a teenager straight out of middle school and decide that you want to meet the love of your life this year. We'll be waiting here until you get back to tell us we've been right all along.īut what if you repeat an experiment a hundred times and want to find the odds that you'll obtain a fixed result at least 20 times? So go on, roll it, say, a thousand times. Remember that the more times you repeat an experiment, the more trustworthy the results. If you don't believe me, take a dice and roll it a few times and note the results. Therefore, the probability of obtaining 6 when you roll the die is 1 / 6. If it is a fair die, then the likelihood of each of these results is the same, i.e., 1 in 6 or 1 / 6. If you have a standard, 6-face die, then there are six possible outcomes, namely the numbers from 1 to 6. When you look at all the things that may occur, the formula (just as our coin flip probability formula) states that Classical probability problems often need to you find how often one outcome occurs versus another, and how one event happening affects the probability of future events happening.

The probability of some event happening is a mathematical (numerical) representation of how likely it is to happen, where a probability of 1 means that an event will always happen, while a probability of 0 means that it will never happen.

Variance of coin flip